What is Wrong With Julio Rodriguez
Julio Rodríguez burst onto the scene in 2022, living up to the hype as a former top prospect and showcasing his elite athleticism as a true five-tool player. By 2023, he had firmly established himself as one of the game’s brightest young stars, finishing fourth in AL MVP voting and solidifying his place among baseball’s elite.
However, after a challenging 2024 season and a sluggish start to 2025, questions are beginning to emerge about whether Rodríguez is still that top-tier talent. So, what’s changed? Let’s take a closer look at how his 2025 performance stacks up against his breakout campaign in 2023 and where things may have gone off track.
Swing Changes
2023 Swing
2023 Stance (video linked below)
Julio Rodríguez homers for 100th RBI in the 5th | 09/20/2023
Julio Rodríguez homers on a fly ball to right-center field for his 100th RBI, giving the Mariners a 3-1 lead in the 5th
According to Baseball Savant, Rodríguez sets up with his feet close together at 25.2 inches apart. He stands tall with a slightly closed-off stance. His load begins by sinking into his legs and hinging at the hips, a move that helps him stay grounded and connected throughout his forward move. At foot strike, he remains into his legs while staying upright with a slight forward bend. As his swing progresses, he maintains his posture well and stays behind the ball, allowing him to drive it with power and consistency all over the field.
2025 Swing
2025 Stance (video linked below)
Baseball Savant Videos
Julio Rodríguez strikes out swinging. | BaseballSavant.com
In 2025, Julio Rodríguez has made noticeable changes to his setup and swing mechanics compared to his 2023 form. He now stands wider at the plate, with a base measuring 29.8 inches between his feet — nearly five inches wider than before. His knees are more bent, and his stance is slightly more open. One key difference is the removal of his initial move of sinking into the ground during the load phase. Additionally, his bat now starts in a less vertical position, and he uses a down-up hand pump load, a change from his more fluid 2023 swing.
At foot strike, there’s increased forward bend, and he doesn’t hold his backside as effectively as he did prior. Also, Rodríguez initiates his side bend earlier in the swing, which disrupts his ability to maintain consistent posture throughout the swing. These subtle but significant mechanical changes may be contributing to his reduced effectiveness at the plate in 2025.
Changes & Flaws
Before diving deeper into what’s changed for Julio Rodríguez in 2025, it’s important to understand his overall profile as a hitter. Rodríguez possesses elite bat speed, though it has dipped slightly from his peak, it still ranks in the 92nd percentile league-wide. He’s always been a free swinger, consistently posting chase rates around 36%, but he’s managed to avoid high K rates. Despite running below league-average whiff rates, he’s historically produced elite results by pairing his bat speed with consistent hard contact. Notably, he’s recorded a barrel rate over 10% in every season of his career, except in early 2025. One area where pitchers have found success against Rodríguez throughout his career has been with the hard stuff up in the zone followed by soft stuff away. But in 2025, some of the cracks in his swing and approach are becoming more apparent.
One notable adjustment Rodríguez has made is his increased aggression early in counts. He’s now swinging at 51% of first pitches, a significant jump from 38% last season. This approach has yielded strong results, as he’s hitting .353 on first pitches — a clear payoff for hunting early in counts.
However, two major issues have emerged in 2025: a steep decline in his zone contact rate and a surge in ground balls at the expense of driven balls in the air. Throughout his career, Rodríguez has thrived by punishing pitches in the zone. This year, his effectiveness in that area has dropped, particularly against fastballs. His whiff rate against heaters is up 7% compared to 2023, and his batting average against them has fallen to just .240.
The ground ball issue appears tied to an over-aggressive approach geared toward pulling the ball. This has led to an increase in rollovers and a reduced ability to adjust to offspeed and breaking pitches. This combination has diminished his ability to drive it with authority through the middle of the field.
Fixes
Starting with his swing mechanics, the first adjustment I’d recommend for Julio Rodríguez is reintroducing the sink move he utilized in 2023. That move helped him stay grounded and controlled in his forward move, creating a strong foundation for his swing. Not only will it help him with staying grounded, but it is also a way for him to incorporate rhythm and help with his timing. Alongside that, maintaining tall posture throughout the swing is key. Staying tall allows for more efficient rotation and a flatter bat path that stays in the zone longer.
One of the key differences in Rodríguez’s approach during his standout 2023 season was his ability to drive the ball to all parts of the field. When he’s at his best, he uses the entire field with authority rather than trying to force pull-side power. With his elite bat speed, there’s no need for him to cheat to pull the ball in the air. From an approach standpoint, I’d have him focus on staying through the middle of the field, particularly to right-center, and allow the ball to get a bit deeper. This adjustment would help him reestablish the ability to drive pitches to all fields while also improving his ability to stay on breaking and offspeed pitches — an area that has caused issues early in 2025.
Conclusion
Julio Rodríguez has already proven that he possesses the elite tools and ceiling to be one of the game’s premier talents. On the surface, the differences between his near-MVP campaign in 2023 and his struggles in 2024 and 2025 may seem subtle, but they’ve had a significant impact. The good news for Seattle is that the foundation is still there. With a few targeted adjustments to his swing mechanics and approach, like getting back to a more grounded load, maintaining posture, and using the whole field, Rodríguez has every chance to return to the MVP-caliber force the Mariners need at the heart of their lineup.
